* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * PRISCILLA EP162013 10/15/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 27 26 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 27 26 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 26 24 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 4 7 10 17 23 23 24 23 22 18 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -3 -4 -6 -3 -1 3 4 SHEAR DIR 127 164 252 275 259 254 249 250 246 244 252 269 293 SST (C) 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.3 25.9 25.2 24.7 24.5 24.7 24.6 24.5 24.4 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 132 129 125 121 113 107 105 107 106 105 103 100 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -55.1 -55.3 -55.1 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 44 44 45 44 44 41 37 33 29 27 25 25 24 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -4 0 -11 -12 -16 -35 -29 -29 -25 -26 -23 -27 200 MB DIV 12 -1 0 6 1 -7 -20 -33 12 -24 -8 -50 -47 700-850 TADV 5 5 7 4 5 6 4 1 2 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 951 953 960 980 1005 1044 1079 1144 1234 1296 1353 1411 1412 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.4 19.8 19.7 19.3 19.2 19.2 19.3 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 117.1 117.7 118.3 119.0 119.6 120.6 121.3 122.0 122.8 123.6 124.4 125.3 125.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 11. 12. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -13. -19. -25. -29. -33. -34. -33. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/15/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/15/13 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING