* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * PRISCILLA EP162013 10/16/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 29 27 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 29 27 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 29 27 24 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 8 12 17 21 21 20 21 18 18 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -3 -2 -2 -3 -1 0 -1 -1 0 5 SHEAR DIR 282 285 260 244 243 251 252 252 270 275 285 332 310 SST (C) 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.7 25.3 25.3 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.2 25.0 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 132 129 126 123 118 114 114 115 115 115 113 111 106 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.5 -54.8 -55.2 -55.3 -55.8 -55.4 -55.4 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 46 45 44 45 43 36 32 32 31 29 27 24 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -21 -26 -24 -21 -42 -34 -32 -26 -37 -38 -26 -19 200 MB DIV -7 -2 -6 6 -11 -18 -2 26 1 -3 -40 -39 -33 700-850 TADV 6 5 5 5 6 7 3 5 3 3 2 1 1 LAND (KM) 995 1021 1052 1078 1108 1178 1305 1418 1511 1597 1656 1713 1712 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.5 18.7 18.9 18.4 18.0 17.8 17.7 17.9 18.3 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 118.3 119.0 119.6 120.2 120.8 121.8 122.9 123.9 125.0 126.1 127.1 128.2 128.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 7 1 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -12. -18. -22. -27. -28. -28. -27. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/16/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/16/13 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING