* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * PRISCILLA EP162013 10/17/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 21 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 20 23 26 25 17 20 18 16 12 15 14 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -2 0 0 -1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 246 241 241 245 251 253 257 280 297 320 327 328 N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.6 25.4 25.3 25.2 25.0 25.1 25.0 24.9 24.7 24.4 24.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 117 115 114 113 111 112 111 110 108 103 102 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.8 -55.0 -55.3 -55.6 -55.7 -55.3 -55.2 -55.0 -55.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 42 40 36 33 31 30 30 29 26 21 20 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 4 2 2 2 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -20 -34 -40 -41 -33 -32 -40 -48 -47 -41 -34 N/A 200 MB DIV 6 -18 -24 -25 -20 -20 -14 -47 -15 -73 -42 -39 N/A 700-850 TADV 7 8 4 7 5 2 4 4 6 4 5 1 N/A LAND (KM) 1092 1134 1176 1239 1301 1403 1498 1587 1666 1719 1744 1760 N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.8 18.8 18.7 18.6 18.5 18.3 18.3 18.4 18.8 19.3 19.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.6 121.2 121.7 122.4 123.0 124.3 125.4 126.6 127.7 128.7 129.4 129.8 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 3 2 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -9. -14. -20. -24. -27. -29. -30. -31. -29. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/17/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/17/13 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING