* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/20/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 46 49 58 66 69 65 63 62 64 65 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 46 49 58 66 69 65 63 62 64 65 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 43 47 51 58 63 68 71 72 71 70 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 9 6 7 11 11 14 15 14 21 15 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -3 -3 -7 -8 -4 1 1 -3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 94 121 139 147 197 185 181 182 180 213 241 236 210 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 161 160 160 160 160 161 162 161 161 161 160 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 10 9 9 10 10 9 8 8 10 9 700-500 MB RH 80 77 74 71 68 63 60 57 58 59 57 54 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 12 13 14 11 11 11 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 36 35 24 26 34 39 46 22 31 26 30 16 16 200 MB DIV 68 53 49 33 33 62 87 68 47 22 24 34 15 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 303 286 269 244 222 182 158 119 70 65 88 123 185 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.3 15.6 16.1 16.3 16.6 17.0 17.2 17.2 17.1 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 101.0 101.3 101.6 101.9 102.1 102.2 102.1 101.9 101.7 101.9 102.6 103.5 104.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 5 4 3 1 2 2 1 2 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 20 20 20 22 23 24 23 22 22 25 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 444 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 2. 4. 5. 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 23. 31. 34. 30. 28. 27. 29. 30. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/20/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/20/13 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING