* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/20/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 57 61 68 68 61 56 53 51 53 54 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 57 61 68 68 61 56 53 51 53 54 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 57 62 66 72 76 79 79 78 76 75 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 9 7 7 12 10 13 13 12 12 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -3 -5 -7 -4 -4 0 -2 -4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 134 163 164 202 210 164 186 185 226 241 245 210 221 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 160 159 159 159 159 159 159 159 161 161 160 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -52.8 -53.2 -52.6 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 8 11 9 10 7 9 6 10 8 700-500 MB RH 76 73 71 69 67 61 58 58 57 57 60 56 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 13 12 13 13 10 5 3 3 4 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 35 25 21 30 35 40 32 27 25 18 18 4 5 200 MB DIV 65 58 47 42 66 70 50 72 44 7 12 4 -12 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 -2 1 LAND (KM) 289 273 256 236 218 197 189 171 153 159 177 207 306 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.5 15.7 16.0 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.5 16.3 16.3 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 101.6 101.8 102.0 102.1 102.2 102.3 102.3 102.3 102.3 102.4 102.4 103.6 105.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 3 2 1 0 1 1 0 3 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 18 18 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 22 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 439 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 13. 18. 21. 23. 23. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -11. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 12. 16. 23. 23. 16. 11. 8. 6. 8. 9. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/20/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/20/13 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING