* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/20/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 66 71 76 78 78 72 68 63 62 62 63 V (KT) LAND 55 61 66 71 76 78 78 72 68 63 62 62 63 V (KT) LGE mod 55 63 70 75 79 85 89 93 93 91 88 86 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 10 8 11 13 11 10 14 11 8 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -5 -7 -6 -6 -1 -5 -5 0 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 169 180 207 194 159 160 163 189 255 256 273 221 220 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 160 160 160 161 160 160 160 160 160 160 157 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.4 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 9 8 10 9 10 8 8 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 72 70 69 67 63 59 57 56 55 54 51 51 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 16 16 13 11 7 7 6 7 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR 24 21 34 39 39 54 34 38 29 26 8 -3 20 200 MB DIV 70 75 65 71 83 65 61 51 13 17 21 13 14 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 1 0 0 -1 3 LAND (KM) 247 224 203 188 173 143 112 119 135 155 202 297 418 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.6 16.7 16.6 16.5 16.2 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 101.8 102.0 102.1 102.2 102.2 102.0 101.8 101.9 102.3 102.9 103.9 105.1 106.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 2 2 1 0 1 2 4 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 23 28 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 14. 17. 17. 17. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. -1. -3. -9. -9. -9. -9. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 21. 23. 23. 17. 13. 8. 7. 7. 8. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/20/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/20/13 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING