* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/21/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 102 104 103 99 91 82 76 70 66 64 61 59 V (KT) LAND 95 102 104 103 99 91 82 76 70 66 64 61 59 V (KT) LGE mod 95 103 108 109 108 104 99 93 87 83 80 78 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 15 16 15 14 14 14 15 11 7 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 1 3 -3 -2 4 0 2 SHEAR DIR 181 176 168 175 188 213 224 259 264 256 241 241 254 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 160 160 160 160 161 161 160 159 158 156 151 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 11 9 10 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 65 63 60 59 57 57 57 52 50 47 49 48 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 12 10 8 7 6 7 7 8 9 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 30 38 42 49 52 21 29 17 11 4 24 17 25 200 MB DIV 65 71 83 62 46 50 41 20 10 25 18 17 -8 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3 2 0 LAND (KM) 191 170 149 137 125 101 104 133 207 306 383 507 683 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.8 16.9 16.8 16.4 16.1 16.1 15.9 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 102.2 102.2 102.1 102.1 102.0 101.9 102.1 102.8 103.8 105.1 106.3 108.1 110.2 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 4 6 6 7 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 21 23 28 26 24 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 12. 12. 8. 5. 3. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -9. -9. -7. -6. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 9. 8. 4. -4. -13. -19. -25. -29. -31. -34. -36. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/21/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/21/13 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING