* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/21/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 110 111 109 104 99 87 79 72 71 67 67 66 V (KT) LAND 105 110 111 109 104 99 87 79 72 71 67 67 66 V (KT) LGE mod 105 111 113 112 109 103 96 90 83 78 74 70 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 13 13 9 11 12 10 11 6 7 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -4 -4 -2 0 2 4 -2 6 4 2 3 SHEAR DIR 161 163 180 205 200 178 221 234 252 214 199 188 209 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 155 155 154 156 156 156 157 156 154 150 148 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.4 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 9 8 10 8 10 7 10 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 63 60 59 57 57 57 52 51 50 47 48 46 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 14 12 10 11 10 10 10 13 13 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 38 43 47 45 28 20 17 6 -1 29 29 25 22 200 MB DIV 69 70 41 21 31 63 14 17 11 44 5 10 -12 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 2 0 1 -2 2 2 0 LAND (KM) 180 171 162 154 146 159 189 227 298 386 479 606 769 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.3 16.1 15.9 15.7 15.7 15.6 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 102.3 102.3 102.3 102.3 102.2 102.4 102.9 103.6 104.6 105.8 107.4 109.1 111.0 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 1 0 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 19 23 26 23 26 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -14. -17. -22. -26. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 10. 9. 6. 3. 1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -4. -4. -6. -6. -5. -1. -1. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 4. -1. -6. -18. -26. -33. -34. -38. -38. -39. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/21/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/21/13 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING