* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN AL132013 10/21/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 46 49 51 47 40 31 25 23 20 18 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 46 49 51 47 40 31 25 23 20 18 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 42 45 47 48 47 42 37 33 32 33 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 19 19 17 30 34 32 22 7 19 21 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 0 0 2 4 3 0 1 0 3 2 SHEAR DIR 265 262 286 302 285 317 333 342 357 306 243 278 259 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.2 25.5 24.9 24.3 23.6 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 127 126 124 121 118 114 107 103 98 94 90 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 110 109 108 106 103 100 96 91 88 84 81 78 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.3 -55.5 -56.0 -56.0 -56.0 -55.2 -55.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -55.0 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 6 7 5 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 55 56 53 51 47 44 44 42 39 47 52 55 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 11 12 12 10 7 5 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -112 -100 -94 -82 -77 -80 -93 -135 -135 -135 -147 -137 -148 200 MB DIV 18 30 30 4 -9 -12 -9 -22 -55 -8 6 -12 -24 700-850 TADV 0 0 4 6 2 10 13 19 13 12 -8 17 -2 LAND (KM) 1574 1654 1735 1825 1847 1820 1807 1778 1724 1675 1628 1581 1547 LAT (DEG N) 28.7 29.1 29.5 29.8 30.1 30.5 30.8 31.3 32.1 32.9 33.8 34.8 35.9 LONG(DEG W) 55.2 54.5 53.8 52.9 51.9 50.0 48.7 47.5 46.3 45.2 44.0 42.8 41.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 7 5 3 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 3. -1. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 10. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -3. -6. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 13. 5. -4. -10. -12. -15. -17. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132013 THIRTEEN 10/21/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132013 THIRTEEN 10/21/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132013 THIRTEEN 10/21/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED