* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132013 10/22/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 42 41 38 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 42 41 38 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 36 37 38 39 37 33 29 25 23 20 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 17 16 15 22 35 32 35 25 27 39 37 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 1 1 1 1 0 5 2 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 260 285 299 288 310 329 332 334 319 294 287 308 303 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.3 25.5 24.4 23.6 22.7 21.9 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 125 124 123 120 116 109 101 95 90 86 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 108 106 105 104 102 98 94 87 83 79 76 74 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.5 -55.9 -55.6 -55.8 -55.4 -55.2 -54.7 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -55.3 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 51 49 46 44 45 46 44 52 56 57 61 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 12 11 8 6 3 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -104 -93 -84 -77 -76 -83 -100 -145 -133 -143 -177 -175 -132 200 MB DIV 39 29 4 -2 -25 -7 -6 -24 -32 11 -15 -38 -24 700-850 TADV 0 4 7 6 4 14 9 20 14 20 23 56 55 LAND (KM) 1683 1752 1821 1868 1850 1809 1752 1683 1596 1548 1534 1545 1601 LAT (DEG N) 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.6 31.3 32.3 33.7 34.9 36.1 37.3 38.5 LONG(DEG W) 54.2 53.5 52.8 52.1 51.4 50.0 48.7 47.0 45.1 43.3 41.3 39.3 37.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 7 6 8 10 10 10 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 9 7 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 8 CX,CY: 6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. -2. -6. -9. -12. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. -5. -13. -22. -30. -37. -43. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132013 LORENZO 10/22/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132013 LORENZO 10/22/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132013 LORENZO 10/22/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED