* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/22/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 106 104 100 93 83 76 74 69 68 66 65 V (KT) LAND 110 109 106 104 100 93 83 76 74 69 68 66 65 V (KT) LGE mod 110 109 107 104 101 94 87 79 73 69 66 63 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 12 10 13 13 14 9 10 10 10 1 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -3 0 0 -1 0 -1 2 0 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 176 188 195 171 178 217 235 239 188 213 190 214 141 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 154 155 155 156 157 157 156 154 151 148 147 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -52.5 -53.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 9 10 10 7 9 6 9 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 60 59 59 58 60 58 55 56 53 52 49 52 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 12 11 11 12 11 13 15 17 20 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 41 42 26 16 16 21 3 -11 16 16 20 21 24 200 MB DIV 83 66 44 61 49 67 64 40 50 1 35 5 15 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 143 144 145 153 161 186 228 296 380 482 584 701 813 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.3 16.2 16.2 16.0 15.8 15.7 15.5 15.4 15.4 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 102.0 102.0 101.9 102.0 102.0 102.4 103.3 104.4 105.7 107.1 108.6 110.1 111.5 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 0 1 1 3 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 21 23 22 26 27 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -11. -17. -21. -26. -31. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -2. 0. 0. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -3. 0. 3. 7. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -6. -10. -17. -27. -34. -36. -41. -41. -44. -45. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/22/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/22/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##