* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132013 10/22/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 37 37 37 36 31 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 37 37 37 36 31 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 36 36 36 33 29 26 25 24 24 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 13 23 30 33 30 20 12 18 24 22 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 1 0 -1 3 1 3 SHEAR DIR 294 306 277 309 331 343 350 3 324 274 285 264 272 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.4 25.7 24.8 24.0 23.2 22.4 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 126 125 123 120 116 110 103 97 92 88 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 109 108 106 104 101 99 95 89 84 81 78 75 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -56.0 -55.7 -55.6 -55.8 -55.2 -55.3 -54.7 -54.6 -54.9 -55.3 -55.6 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 5 6 7 6 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 51 47 44 42 39 41 37 36 44 49 53 49 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 14 13 12 10 7 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -91 -85 -74 -70 -85 -104 -143 -154 -155 -154 -166 -165 -153 200 MB DIV 24 17 4 -33 -22 1 -24 -29 5 7 -10 9 -1 700-850 TADV 5 10 8 3 6 10 15 21 19 6 16 9 18 LAND (KM) 1756 1829 1904 1893 1885 1856 1814 1758 1700 1644 1621 1623 1649 LAT (DEG N) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.9 30.3 30.9 31.8 32.9 34.1 35.2 36.3 37.5 LONG(DEG W) 53.4 52.5 51.6 50.9 50.1 49.0 47.8 46.2 44.5 42.9 41.2 39.4 37.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 6 5 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. -4. -12. -17. -20. -25. -27. -31. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132013 LORENZO 10/22/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132013 LORENZO 10/22/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132013 LORENZO 10/22/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)