* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/22/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 95 93 90 88 85 84 82 78 75 74 73 71 V (KT) LAND 100 95 93 90 88 85 84 82 78 75 74 73 71 V (KT) LGE mod 100 95 91 88 85 79 72 66 62 61 59 58 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 13 13 13 13 15 13 11 9 11 9 8 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -1 0 0 1 -1 -1 2 0 1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 202 220 205 204 213 256 254 225 197 198 195 233 200 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 155 156 156 157 157 154 152 149 147 147 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 59 60 61 62 61 57 57 54 56 54 57 57 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 11 11 10 12 16 19 19 21 23 25 25 850 MB ENV VOR 39 30 20 21 20 5 -7 -8 15 9 20 16 20 200 MB DIV 74 64 82 81 78 72 40 55 15 43 49 12 19 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 0 -1 0 0 4 1 1 -1 LAND (KM) 134 132 130 145 161 222 246 316 428 510 613 737 838 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.5 16.4 16.3 16.2 16.0 16.0 16.0 15.8 15.7 15.6 15.6 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 102.0 101.9 101.8 101.9 102.0 102.8 103.8 105.1 106.6 107.9 109.2 110.7 112.4 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 1 3 4 6 7 7 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 17 17 17 17 18 23 22 22 27 21 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -6. -10. -13. -18. -22. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 6. 11. 11. 14. 17. 19. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -16. -18. -22. -25. -26. -27. -29. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/22/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/22/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##