* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132013 10/22/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 53 52 48 40 33 26 21 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 53 52 48 40 33 26 21 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 52 53 53 51 45 40 36 35 35 35 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 21 24 32 35 28 10 4 15 22 29 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 4 0 0 0 3 0 3 5 0 5 SHEAR DIR 300 282 308 326 338 359 12 20 333 256 255 238 242 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.3 25.5 24.6 23.9 23.0 22.2 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 126 124 123 121 116 109 102 97 91 87 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 108 107 104 103 102 99 94 88 84 80 77 75 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -55.8 -55.9 -56.1 -55.8 -55.3 -54.9 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -55.2 -55.6 -56.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 5 4 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 48 47 45 42 41 40 35 38 46 51 51 47 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 12 11 10 8 6 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -82 -76 -68 -85 -97 -118 -162 -160 -165 -170 -180 -96 -159 200 MB DIV 7 15 -24 -52 -17 -42 -34 -16 -1 0 19 28 15 700-850 TADV 11 9 4 9 11 6 14 4 11 6 17 6 -52 LAND (KM) 1829 1901 1911 1906 1902 1874 1810 1746 1684 1652 1631 1645 1685 LAT (DEG N) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.2 31.0 32.0 33.2 34.3 35.5 36.6 37.8 LONG(DEG W) 52.4 51.6 50.7 50.2 49.6 48.6 47.5 45.9 44.1 42.3 40.5 38.6 36.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 5 7 9 10 9 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 7. 3. -5. -12. -19. -24. -29. -32. -34. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132013 LORENZO 10/22/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132013 LORENZO 10/22/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132013 LORENZO 10/22/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)