* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/22/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 90 86 83 80 76 72 67 62 57 53 51 50 V (KT) LAND 95 90 86 83 80 76 72 67 62 57 53 51 50 V (KT) LGE mod 95 90 86 83 80 74 67 62 59 56 54 51 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 14 14 16 17 15 11 12 10 8 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -2 0 -2 1 -1 0 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 180 188 205 219 243 268 271 244 252 251 244 214 207 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 155 156 156 157 157 155 153 150 149 148 148 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 9 7 7 9 6 9 7 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 59 59 61 59 58 58 57 55 57 56 56 54 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 9 8 9 9 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 23 16 15 13 7 -17 -23 9 -2 3 10 8 3 200 MB DIV 62 73 68 47 44 32 19 44 0 -6 -8 12 17 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 -2 0 -1 -1 1 3 5 3 LAND (KM) 134 137 140 169 198 244 313 407 498 599 702 848 933 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.4 16.2 15.9 15.8 15.7 15.5 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 102.0 102.1 102.1 102.4 102.6 103.5 104.7 106.1 107.4 108.8 110.2 112.0 114.0 STM SPEED (KT) 0 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 6 7 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 15 16 16 17 25 27 23 26 25 16 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -10. -14. -18. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -16. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -15. -19. -23. -28. -33. -38. -42. -44. -45. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/22/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/22/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##