* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132013 10/22/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 48 47 46 40 31 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 48 48 47 46 40 31 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 48 49 48 44 39 35 33 32 33 31 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 21 26 36 40 37 24 5 11 25 33 45 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 5 2 -3 -1 0 1 4 6 3 8 N/A SHEAR DIR 289 310 325 339 354 2 14 331 227 233 230 239 N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.6 25.8 25.0 24.2 23.4 22.5 21.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 125 124 123 119 111 104 98 94 89 85 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 107 105 104 104 101 95 89 85 81 78 75 N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -55.8 -55.8 -55.6 -55.2 -55.3 -54.8 -54.5 -54.6 -55.1 -55.5 -56.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 5 4 3 1 N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 45 42 42 42 38 36 42 48 50 52 50 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 14 13 12 10 7 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -81 -75 -90 -100 -112 -148 -166 -164 -161 -174 -147 -163 N/A 200 MB DIV 5 -20 -64 -61 -35 -55 -34 -10 28 17 26 13 N/A 700-850 TADV 8 3 7 11 9 11 17 16 2 12 -15 0 N/A LAND (KM) 1890 1926 1928 1917 1906 1840 1755 1678 1617 1566 1534 1532 N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.8 30.6 31.7 32.8 33.9 35.1 36.4 37.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.6 50.9 50.2 49.8 49.3 48.1 46.7 45.4 44.0 42.5 40.8 39.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 5 7 8 8 8 9 10 9 N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 5 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -13. -14. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. -18. -19. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 2. 1. -5. -14. -21. -26. -31. -35. -40. -41. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132013 LORENZO 10/22/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -35.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132013 LORENZO 10/22/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132013 LORENZO 10/22/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)