* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/22/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 70 67 65 65 67 67 69 69 67 68 67 72 V (KT) LAND 75 70 67 65 65 67 67 69 69 67 68 67 72 V (KT) LGE mod 75 68 64 62 60 56 53 51 50 50 50 50 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 13 14 14 10 8 10 8 7 2 6 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 3 1 2 1 0 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 163 173 197 224 242 245 206 189 213 208 109 171 208 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 157 156 156 157 156 155 152 148 148 147 146 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 60 62 61 59 59 59 55 55 51 49 50 53 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 10 10 11 13 15 17 19 20 21 21 25 850 MB ENV VOR 11 14 11 9 8 -9 -3 15 13 32 33 47 45 200 MB DIV 70 81 62 31 56 34 50 25 16 10 0 0 41 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 -1 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 139 161 182 213 233 285 374 492 594 707 808 855 863 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.2 16.1 16.0 15.9 15.7 15.5 15.3 15.2 15.2 15.3 15.6 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 101.8 102.0 102.2 102.6 102.9 104.0 105.3 106.9 108.5 110.0 111.3 112.6 113.8 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 3 4 6 7 8 8 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 16 16 16 20 29 25 25 28 19 14 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):145/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE -6. -10. -11. -11. -10. -8. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 14. 14. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -10. -10. -8. -8. -6. -6. -8. -7. -7. -3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/22/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/22/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##