* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132013 10/23/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 42 39 31 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 42 39 31 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 44 43 42 38 33 30 29 29 30 29 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 26 29 37 40 35 13 4 20 28 31 48 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 5 0 -2 0 1 0 7 3 1 4 N/A SHEAR DIR 310 322 333 345 358 11 20 243 231 241 235 232 N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.2 25.3 24.4 23.5 22.7 21.8 20.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 124 124 122 121 115 107 100 94 90 86 82 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 108 105 104 102 102 98 92 86 82 79 76 73 N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -56.0 -55.7 -55.1 -55.2 -55.0 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -55.5 -56.0 -56.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 5 3 3 3 1 N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 43 40 41 39 34 38 48 52 52 54 38 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 14 13 12 8 6 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -77 -86 -95 -110 -126 -167 -163 -158 -161 -175 -84 -153 N/A 200 MB DIV -34 -70 -59 -27 -28 -60 -30 5 27 18 40 2 N/A 700-850 TADV 5 8 11 9 7 14 9 7 9 10 -11 -92 N/A LAND (KM) 1925 1927 1930 1909 1889 1807 1707 1618 1566 1534 1531 1560 N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.9 30.1 31.1 32.4 33.7 34.9 36.1 37.4 38.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.4 49.8 49.2 48.8 48.4 47.2 45.8 44.5 42.9 41.3 39.4 37.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 4 6 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 4 4 3 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -18. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -6. -14. -22. -28. -32. -37. -39. -41. -42. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132013 LORENZO 10/23/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -43.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132013 LORENZO 10/23/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132013 LORENZO 10/23/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)