* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132013 10/23/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 39 36 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 39 36 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 44 42 41 36 32 29 28 28 28 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 26 32 41 38 26 10 9 23 28 37 54 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 1 -5 -1 -1 1 2 4 1 2 6 N/A SHEAR DIR 324 339 344 1 9 17 31 198 239 239 238 249 N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.5 25.7 24.8 23.9 23.1 22.2 21.3 20.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 122 120 117 111 103 97 92 88 84 82 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 106 103 102 101 100 95 90 84 80 77 75 74 N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.0 -55.2 -55.4 -55.3 -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 -55.4 -55.8 -56.7 -57.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 3 2 2 1 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 40 39 40 36 34 42 49 50 51 43 33 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -88 -95 -111 -126 -157 -178 -175 -171 -186 -135 -147 -174 N/A 200 MB DIV -79 -87 -42 -30 -59 -56 -10 8 18 34 15 -6 N/A 700-850 TADV 7 12 9 7 11 14 20 1 14 10 -38 -83 N/A LAND (KM) 1926 1922 1920 1878 1838 1758 1693 1638 1624 1633 1680 1747 N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.3 30.7 31.8 33.0 34.3 35.4 36.6 37.7 39.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.5 49.0 48.5 48.1 47.7 46.2 44.4 42.6 40.8 38.8 36.7 34.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 5 6 7 9 10 10 9 10 11 11 N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 3 3 1 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 14. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. -20. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -9. -18. -25. -31. -37. -40. -43. -46. -47. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132013 LORENZO 10/23/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -59.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132013 LORENZO 10/23/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132013 LORENZO 10/23/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)