* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/23/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 61 60 62 65 66 68 69 69 72 72 73 V (KT) LAND 65 62 61 60 62 65 66 68 69 69 72 72 73 V (KT) LGE mod 65 61 58 56 54 50 48 47 48 49 51 54 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 15 15 10 8 8 6 10 7 9 3 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -1 -1 1 2 0 0 -2 -3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 229 243 260 282 275 217 191 157 173 155 151 182 145 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.2 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 157 157 157 157 154 152 150 149 149 145 141 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 62 63 64 64 62 58 58 55 55 51 53 54 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 12 13 16 17 19 20 21 23 23 24 850 MB ENV VOR 1 3 3 0 -13 -7 10 13 32 44 53 49 49 200 MB DIV 32 22 49 51 25 45 33 24 22 -4 13 24 -17 700-850 TADV 1 3 2 0 0 3 4 3 0 0 1 2 0 LAND (KM) 158 199 241 261 291 384 506 625 753 893 966 971 976 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.0 15.8 15.7 15.6 15.4 15.2 15.0 14.8 14.8 14.9 15.6 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 101.8 102.3 102.7 103.3 103.9 105.3 107.0 108.7 110.2 111.9 113.6 115.1 116.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 14 16 19 30 25 25 24 15 14 16 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 13. 14. 16. 20. 19. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 7. 7. 8. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/23/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/23/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##