* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132013 10/23/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 35 32 29 24 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 37 35 32 29 24 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 36 34 33 31 30 30 31 31 30 28 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 33 35 29 21 8 9 18 30 40 61 69 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -3 -5 -4 -5 -2 1 3 -1 2 4 2 N/A SHEAR DIR 350 5 16 23 44 90 192 230 226 240 253 281 N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.6 25.8 24.8 24.0 23.1 22.2 21.4 21.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 122 120 118 111 103 98 92 88 84 83 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 104 103 102 101 101 96 89 85 81 77 75 74 N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.9 -55.0 -54.9 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -55.1 -55.4 -56.3 -56.9 -58.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 8 7 5 4 4 2 1 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 37 33 31 30 36 43 44 47 36 29 24 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 9 8 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -119 -133 -151 -167 -175 -163 -165 -176 -139 -132 -174 -197 N/A 200 MB DIV -51 -24 -46 -49 -35 -12 10 30 28 -4 -10 -46 N/A 700-850 TADV 6 4 7 7 7 8 -1 10 -2 -41 -104 -30 N/A LAND (KM) 1968 1953 1938 1902 1866 1785 1711 1667 1649 1668 1714 1782 N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.3 29.5 29.7 30.1 30.5 31.6 32.9 34.1 35.3 36.4 37.6 38.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.9 48.5 48.1 47.8 47.4 46.0 44.2 42.4 40.5 38.5 36.3 34.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 7 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -11. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 14. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -18. -20. -21. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -11. -16. -20. -22. -25. -28. -33. -39. -38. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132013 LORENZO 10/23/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -41.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132013 LORENZO 10/23/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132013 LORENZO 10/23/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED