* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/23/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 39 38 38 41 45 48 51 53 51 52 54 V (KT) LAND 45 41 39 38 38 41 45 48 51 53 51 52 54 V (KT) LGE mod 45 41 38 35 34 32 34 36 40 44 46 47 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 9 7 3 2 6 7 7 8 6 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 3 -1 2 1 0 -1 -3 -5 -2 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 253 276 278 256 261 135 149 155 142 192 190 181 198 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 156 155 152 150 149 146 144 143 141 137 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 7 7 8 8 7 8 7 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 60 61 59 58 57 56 54 55 53 57 54 60 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 15 17 17 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -26 -14 -7 1 8 18 25 19 28 17 21 29 200 MB DIV 39 15 16 13 29 41 41 60 21 10 27 42 73 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -3 1 1 -1 0 2 LAND (KM) 317 357 410 463 520 642 785 939 1093 1150 1204 1183 1111 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.1 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.4 14.1 13.8 13.6 13.8 14.4 15.3 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 103.4 104.2 104.9 105.7 106.5 108.1 109.9 111.6 113.4 115.2 117.1 117.9 118.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 17 23 31 34 29 22 21 15 14 14 14 18 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 10. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -7. -7. -4. 0. 3. 6. 8. 6. 7. 9. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/23/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/23/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##