* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/24/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 33 31 30 33 38 43 46 47 45 46 46 V (KT) LAND 40 36 33 31 30 33 38 43 46 47 45 46 46 V (KT) LGE mod 40 36 33 31 30 29 30 33 36 39 39 38 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 5 4 3 0 5 1 2 4 10 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 5 1 0 5 2 0 1 1 -1 -2 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 281 281 276 267 227 132 130 119 207 206 214 225 201 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 155 154 153 151 148 145 141 141 142 141 138 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -52.5 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.6 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 60 59 58 56 57 55 55 56 59 62 61 65 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 13 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -14 -9 0 7 2 11 8 6 7 0 1 6 200 MB DIV 9 10 20 37 43 23 44 -1 -17 -21 7 31 60 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 -2 -1 0 0 3 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 385 444 507 561 620 765 961 1137 1235 1316 1404 1412 1333 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.6 14.4 14.4 14.3 14.0 13.4 13.0 12.9 13.1 13.5 14.3 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 104.2 105.0 105.8 106.7 107.5 109.5 111.5 113.3 115.1 117.0 118.9 119.9 120.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 9 9 9 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 26 33 33 26 22 20 15 15 10 3 10 12 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 21. 22. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -10. -7. -2. 3. 6. 7. 5. 6. 6. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/24/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/24/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##