* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/24/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 37 38 42 47 50 49 48 47 46 45 V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 37 38 42 47 50 49 48 47 46 45 V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 37 37 36 37 39 42 44 44 43 41 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 2 5 4 3 6 6 7 9 9 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 1 5 5 1 0 0 -1 -1 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 288 265 204 183 207 135 151 185 228 201 196 197 206 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 154 154 152 150 147 142 140 140 141 142 139 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 60 57 56 56 55 53 55 55 61 65 71 70 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -6 1 8 4 4 11 8 17 4 8 1 12 200 MB DIV 12 16 33 50 55 26 26 -9 -15 5 41 36 15 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -2 -3 0 -2 0 2 1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 429 490 553 625 690 861 1074 1210 1314 1394 1432 1438 1416 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.6 14.4 14.3 14.2 13.8 13.3 13.1 13.0 13.0 13.1 13.9 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 104.9 105.8 106.6 107.6 108.6 110.6 112.8 115.0 116.8 118.1 118.8 119.8 121.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 10 8 5 4 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 32 33 27 22 21 18 15 11 3 6 8 11 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 19. 21. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. 2. 7. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/24/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/24/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##