* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/24/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 41 42 46 50 51 49 47 45 43 42 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 41 42 46 50 51 49 47 45 43 42 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 41 41 41 42 44 46 47 45 43 42 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 8 7 3 4 4 7 10 13 13 17 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 4 3 0 0 0 0 -1 1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 263 240 214 228 222 168 213 221 231 208 212 219 225 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 154 153 152 150 147 144 142 140 140 141 135 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.9 -53.6 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 4 700-500 MB RH 58 57 58 57 56 55 58 57 61 67 73 73 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 12 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -5 2 0 0 12 8 12 14 10 1 6 3 200 MB DIV 15 27 50 37 27 38 -4 -17 -20 5 32 58 30 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -3 -1 0 -1 4 1 2 1 1 4 LAND (KM) 447 501 563 632 711 900 1093 1201 1327 1410 1410 1357 1263 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.4 14.0 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 14.7 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 105.4 106.2 107.0 108.1 109.2 111.3 113.4 115.8 117.9 119.1 119.1 119.6 120.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 11 11 10 11 11 8 3 3 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 34 31 24 20 21 16 15 9 5 9 9 13 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 19. 21. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 11. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/24/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/24/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##