* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/24/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 45 47 52 58 60 61 60 59 57 56 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 45 47 52 58 60 61 60 59 57 56 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 41 42 42 44 46 49 52 54 54 53 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 6 8 10 14 15 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 5 0 -1 3 2 0 0 0 1 -1 7 SHEAR DIR 233 206 220 182 181 174 185 162 182 199 226 215 195 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 153 152 151 149 145 142 142 141 137 134 132 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 55 56 55 53 51 52 53 54 56 62 66 67 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 16 15 16 17 18 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR -2 3 -2 -3 2 16 23 39 37 36 24 20 13 200 MB DIV 32 47 40 24 35 36 24 13 10 32 60 86 72 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 1 0 -3 0 0 -1 0 0 3 8 LAND (KM) 505 563 613 705 806 1031 1165 1279 1388 1418 1354 1315 1281 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.8 14.7 14.5 14.3 13.8 13.5 13.5 13.7 14.3 15.2 15.8 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 106.4 107.3 108.1 109.3 110.4 112.7 114.9 117.0 118.9 120.0 120.3 120.5 120.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 10 11 11 11 11 10 8 5 4 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 30 23 20 21 19 15 13 4 9 11 13 10 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 20. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 18. 20. 21. 20. 19. 17. 16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/24/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/24/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##