* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/25/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 59 62 65 71 74 73 70 67 64 59 50 V (KT) LAND 50 55 59 62 65 71 74 73 70 67 64 59 50 V (KT) LGE mod 50 54 57 60 63 66 69 71 71 70 67 62 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 7 8 10 6 6 5 11 10 16 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 -3 -5 -5 0 -1 0 -2 0 3 7 12 SHEAR DIR 197 195 157 160 163 164 169 150 185 207 204 213 189 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.2 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 152 151 150 146 142 142 142 140 137 133 130 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -53.3 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 58 56 56 52 55 56 58 62 65 67 64 62 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 14 16 15 15 17 18 18 14 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -7 -5 -3 3 14 29 30 28 26 25 38 66 200 MB DIV 54 45 32 32 44 20 24 -8 20 57 57 45 15 700-850 TADV 0 0 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 4 5 LAND (KM) 571 636 711 818 932 1118 1240 1354 1424 1427 1348 1288 1232 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.6 14.4 14.2 13.9 13.5 13.3 13.3 13.7 14.4 15.5 16.2 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 107.3 108.3 109.2 110.4 111.6 113.8 116.0 117.9 119.4 120.3 120.6 120.6 120.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 12 11 11 10 8 7 5 5 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 23 21 21 18 15 14 7 6 10 13 14 8 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 4. 6. 5. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 15. 21. 24. 23. 20. 17. 14. 9. 0. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/25/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 3.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 22% is 5.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/25/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##