* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/25/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 56 60 65 68 70 70 66 61 50 40 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 56 60 65 68 70 70 66 61 50 40 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 50 53 55 57 58 59 61 61 58 54 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 4 4 2 4 8 10 10 14 19 24 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 0 2 4 1 0 0 0 5 7 10 8 SHEAR DIR 187 142 131 189 253 139 125 166 170 183 182 187 198 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 150 149 148 144 141 141 141 140 137 134 132 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 59 56 55 56 57 60 60 58 64 62 56 46 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 16 17 19 18 18 19 20 21 20 17 13 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -9 -10 -4 -5 11 30 26 28 27 35 55 65 200 MB DIV 48 41 48 45 22 32 1 17 52 42 22 20 3 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -3 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 1 2 1 LAND (KM) 646 734 831 930 1034 1182 1325 1394 1385 1351 1324 1247 1159 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.1 13.8 13.6 13.4 13.2 13.0 13.3 13.9 14.7 15.4 16.2 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 108.0 109.1 110.2 111.3 112.4 114.6 117.0 118.5 119.1 119.5 120.1 120.0 119.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 5 4 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 17 15 13 12 4 7 11 15 14 8 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 20. 23. 25. 25. 21. 16. 5. -5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/25/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/25/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##