* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132013 10/25/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 29 32 32 28 22 19 19 20 23 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 29 32 32 28 22 19 19 20 23 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 19 22 22 24 29 30 39 38 42 30 27 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 0 -1 2 4 3 7 0 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 146 179 206 220 234 253 263 287 313 317 319 325 342 SST (C) 25.7 25.3 25.0 24.4 23.9 22.2 21.6 21.9 23.4 24.3 25.2 25.8 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 110 107 105 101 99 92 90 90 97 103 109 113 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 94 92 91 89 89 85 84 83 88 94 100 104 108 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.2 -55.4 -55.7 -55.8 -56.2 -56.8 -57.2 -57.8 -58.3 -58.2 -57.4 -56.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 3 1 1 2 4 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 38 40 41 41 39 46 42 36 32 26 21 19 18 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -162 -159 -149 -162 -171 -106 -142 -133 -70 -25 -7 -1 -1 200 MB DIV -2 16 6 23 33 38 -11 -42 -59 -71 -60 -46 -41 700-850 TADV 1 1 4 7 9 -16 -72 -38 -23 -39 -19 -9 -21 LAND (KM) 1814 1782 1753 1718 1690 1744 1862 1326 1013 857 875 998 1182 LAT (DEG N) 31.5 32.1 32.6 33.4 34.2 36.3 37.7 36.3 33.1 29.3 26.2 24.1 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 45.4 44.7 43.9 42.8 41.7 37.4 30.5 23.9 21.7 22.3 24.2 26.4 28.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 10 12 16 24 27 21 18 18 16 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 7. 11. 14. 16. 16. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 8. 2. -5. -12. -16. -19. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 20. 22. 24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -19. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 7. 3. -3. -6. -6. -5. -2. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132013 LORENZO 10/25/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132013 LORENZO 10/25/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132013 LORENZO 10/25/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)