* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/25/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 56 59 66 70 71 69 64 52 44 36 V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 56 59 66 70 71 69 64 52 44 36 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 48 50 52 56 59 61 61 58 53 48 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 3 3 1 3 4 10 16 20 20 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 6 5 0 3 0 2 4 8 8 1 SHEAR DIR 145 133 177 111 81 163 151 158 193 198 200 180 208 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 149 149 147 142 141 141 141 137 133 129 125 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 -52.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 58 55 57 58 59 62 63 65 65 63 58 47 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 19 18 17 19 20 19 20 21 18 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -6 -4 -7 -2 20 21 22 21 27 33 58 77 200 MB DIV 33 49 66 30 4 21 7 76 58 59 41 52 18 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -3 -3 0 -2 -1 1 3 4 3 3 LAND (KM) 720 811 907 1005 1106 1209 1297 1337 1313 1228 1150 1061 996 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 13.8 13.5 13.4 13.2 13.2 13.3 13.8 14.8 15.9 16.7 17.5 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 108.8 109.9 110.9 112.0 113.1 115.2 117.0 118.3 119.1 119.3 119.2 118.9 118.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 9 8 6 6 5 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 23 20 16 13 12 9 5 9 15 11 4 18 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 10. 13. 15. 15. 15. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 4. 6. 7. 2. 0. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 21. 25. 26. 24. 19. 7. -1. -9. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/25/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/25/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##