* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132013 10/25/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 33 31 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 33 31 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 23 23 23 23 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 24 24 26 28 33 40 39 37 31 31 37 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 2 2 3 6 3 4 -4 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 175 195 206 223 232 252 266 305 314 314 329 352 350 SST (C) 25.7 25.2 24.7 24.0 23.2 21.7 21.4 22.6 23.8 24.7 25.5 26.2 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 110 106 104 100 97 91 89 92 99 105 111 117 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 93 92 92 90 88 85 82 83 89 95 101 108 114 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.5 -55.8 -55.8 -56.0 -56.6 -57.1 -57.6 -57.7 -58.2 -57.5 -57.2 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 2 1 1 3 4 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 38 41 40 39 39 45 36 34 31 24 21 19 18 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -155 -146 -156 -165 -139 -136 -166 -127 -87 -71 -49 -41 -36 200 MB DIV 16 19 41 29 41 18 -29 -47 -50 -63 -47 -34 -72 700-850 TADV 0 2 6 12 -5 -38 -64 -28 -34 -29 -11 -23 -14 LAND (KM) 1807 1760 1716 1679 1657 1823 1622 1291 1081 1064 1152 1317 1584 LAT (DEG N) 31.6 32.3 33.0 34.1 35.1 37.3 37.5 35.1 31.8 28.7 26.4 24.6 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 45.3 44.6 43.8 42.3 40.7 35.0 27.7 23.7 23.4 25.0 27.2 29.5 32.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 13 17 21 27 23 16 16 16 15 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 7. 11. 14. 16. 16. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 7. -1. -9. -15. -19. -23. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 20. 23. 24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -18. -19. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 6. -1. -7. -11. -11. -10. -7. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132013 LORENZO 10/25/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132013 LORENZO 10/25/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132013 LORENZO 10/25/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)