* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/25/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 58 61 65 67 67 65 54 45 31 23 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 58 61 65 67 67 65 54 45 31 23 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 54 55 56 57 57 58 57 53 47 39 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 4 3 3 5 12 13 17 23 19 26 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 3 3 2 -2 -1 0 4 6 15 14 4 SHEAR DIR 215 198 174 188 161 153 156 168 189 209 204 201 223 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.9 28.0 27.7 27.1 26.4 25.9 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 149 146 144 142 143 140 133 126 119 114 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 57 58 58 60 61 65 62 64 62 58 52 38 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 18 17 18 19 20 21 22 20 20 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -6 -11 -12 -4 12 10 20 27 23 38 48 74 200 MB DIV 55 74 32 14 34 30 38 81 80 54 59 19 0 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -4 -2 -1 0 -3 0 3 7 8 5 -2 LAND (KM) 769 846 931 1009 1094 1165 1218 1210 1128 1000 851 757 700 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.5 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.9 14.8 16.1 17.4 18.5 19.2 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 110.1 111.1 112.2 113.2 114.9 116.6 117.7 118.0 117.8 117.0 116.5 116.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 10 9 8 8 6 6 6 5 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 20 18 15 13 12 13 9 14 9 3 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 4. 3. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 15. 17. 17. 15. 4. -5. -19. -27. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/25/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 3.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 18% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/25/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##