* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/26/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 53 57 63 67 70 64 52 42 33 27 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 53 57 63 67 70 64 52 42 33 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 45 47 49 53 56 58 56 52 45 38 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 2 4 6 7 12 13 22 21 22 25 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 2 0 2 0 4 11 10 10 2 4 SHEAR DIR 126 120 79 114 103 150 139 164 189 206 185 193 199 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 146 145 143 141 142 141 138 134 130 128 125 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.2 -52.7 -52.3 -52.8 -52.6 -53.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 59 57 58 60 63 63 63 64 63 60 51 41 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 18 20 21 21 22 23 23 19 17 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -6 -7 2 16 19 20 23 30 24 48 71 86 200 MB DIV 53 9 4 16 29 25 44 70 55 33 62 48 34 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -5 -3 -1 -3 -2 0 3 4 2 1 -2 LAND (KM) 898 978 1062 1137 1179 1225 1244 1192 1066 959 891 852 845 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.0 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.4 14.1 15.1 16.4 17.3 17.8 18.0 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 110.3 111.3 112.3 113.3 114.3 115.9 117.3 117.8 117.5 117.0 116.6 116.3 116.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 6 6 4 2 1 0 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 12 11 11 8 9 14 6 4 2 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 1. -3. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 22. 25. 19. 7. -3. -12. -18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/26/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/26/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##