* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/26/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 51 54 61 65 67 61 52 41 30 22 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 51 54 61 65 67 61 52 41 30 22 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 45 46 47 50 52 53 50 46 40 34 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 3 3 4 9 13 14 21 14 19 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 6 4 3 2 0 3 8 18 12 8 3 SHEAR DIR 50 37 123 130 118 171 187 204 221 217 200 208 207 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 144 143 141 142 143 140 136 131 129 129 130 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 58 59 63 66 66 64 68 67 64 60 48 40 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 19 20 20 21 22 24 22 20 16 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -1 3 10 14 3 11 11 16 28 51 56 58 200 MB DIV 29 29 38 33 51 9 66 82 49 46 31 31 32 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -1 0 -1 -5 -2 0 7 8 4 2 6 LAND (KM) 970 1055 1144 1188 1219 1230 1191 1098 966 851 790 752 739 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.0 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.7 14.7 15.9 17.1 17.9 18.1 18.1 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 111.3 112.3 113.3 114.3 115.2 116.5 117.3 117.4 116.9 116.2 115.6 115.1 114.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 6 6 6 6 4 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 11 11 10 7 12 9 4 2 14 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 8. 5. 0. -6. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 20. 22. 16. 7. -4. -15. -23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/26/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/26/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##