* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/26/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 53 56 62 64 61 51 42 31 21 16 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 53 56 62 64 61 51 42 31 21 16 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 47 49 50 52 53 51 47 41 35 30 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 3 3 4 12 13 16 21 19 19 20 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 5 4 4 1 4 11 9 14 10 4 1 SHEAR DIR 44 113 131 145 158 176 202 199 227 206 220 225 227 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 144 143 142 143 140 137 133 129 127 130 132 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.1 -53.1 -52.6 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 57 60 64 65 64 65 64 66 65 60 45 39 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 20 20 20 22 23 22 19 16 13 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR -6 0 7 9 3 11 14 14 7 27 38 46 58 200 MB DIV 21 32 33 44 37 51 37 52 32 44 33 19 26 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 -2 -3 -4 -1 2 6 3 1 0 5 LAND (KM) 1024 1106 1161 1177 1201 1186 1129 1020 905 843 837 790 725 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.4 13.6 14.6 15.7 16.7 17.5 17.9 18.1 18.1 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 112.1 113.1 114.1 115.0 115.8 117.1 117.6 117.2 116.5 116.1 116.2 115.6 114.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 8 7 5 5 4 2 2 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 12 12 9 12 11 4 3 2 1 14 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 3. -1. -5. -9. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 19. 16. 6. -3. -14. -24. -29. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/26/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/26/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##