* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/26/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 49 52 54 58 58 54 47 38 29 20 17 V (KT) LAND 45 46 49 52 54 58 58 54 47 38 29 20 17 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 46 48 49 50 50 46 40 35 29 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 1 3 4 8 14 19 18 14 19 15 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 5 5 3 0 4 10 14 14 10 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 345 44 92 127 174 210 222 218 226 212 208 200 194 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 143 143 142 142 141 136 132 132 132 133 132 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 59 63 63 64 63 66 64 68 65 59 52 51 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 19 19 20 20 21 22 21 19 17 14 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 3 9 11 6 8 15 0 5 -1 34 55 99 80 200 MB DIV 32 32 40 34 34 53 48 43 57 70 49 57 19 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -3 -4 -1 2 8 7 5 2 1 1 LAND (KM) 1112 1164 1191 1200 1215 1184 1053 958 905 851 784 728 691 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.7 16.0 17.0 17.5 17.7 17.8 17.8 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 113.0 113.9 114.8 115.6 116.4 117.2 116.9 116.7 116.5 116.0 115.2 114.4 113.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 8 7 6 6 4 2 3 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 10 8 12 7 4 3 2 2 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -3. -8. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 9. 13. 13. 9. 2. -7. -16. -25. -28. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/26/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/26/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##