* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/27/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 66 69 69 67 56 51 40 31 23 20 V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 66 69 69 67 56 51 40 31 23 20 V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 63 66 68 68 63 55 47 40 36 33 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 3 8 10 19 19 16 14 15 19 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 3 3 1 4 9 11 8 6 3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 122 116 136 159 160 227 230 231 192 194 187 192 166 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.4 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 142 142 142 141 137 135 135 133 131 134 139 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.2 -53.0 -52.6 -53.2 -52.5 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 61 61 60 59 64 65 64 63 63 62 59 57 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 20 21 21 22 24 20 20 16 13 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 7 13 8 8 16 15 12 0 0 0 30 55 78 200 MB DIV 24 35 34 39 62 44 57 13 54 55 40 42 31 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -4 -5 -4 0 5 6 4 4 5 2 3 LAND (KM) 1164 1185 1216 1220 1228 1170 1105 1036 951 889 851 853 882 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.9 14.2 15.2 16.3 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.3 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 113.9 114.9 115.9 116.6 117.2 117.6 117.9 117.6 116.8 116.2 115.9 115.6 115.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 7 6 6 4 4 3 2 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 8 9 10 14 8 4 4 3 3 3 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 1. 1. -4. -8. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 14. 12. 1. -4. -15. -24. -32. -35. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/27/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/27/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##