* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/27/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 75 78 80 77 69 61 49 38 28 21 18 V (KT) LAND 65 71 75 78 80 77 69 61 49 38 28 21 18 V (KT) LGE mod 65 71 75 78 78 74 65 56 48 42 37 35 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 4 11 13 18 15 13 12 14 15 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 2 2 6 12 7 13 8 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 117 154 157 173 200 224 229 216 198 203 196 197 177 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 143 143 142 140 136 133 135 137 138 138 140 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 61 59 59 62 66 67 67 65 62 56 54 50 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 20 21 21 22 21 20 16 13 10 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 15 6 7 8 15 10 3 0 7 26 57 51 50 200 MB DIV 40 43 47 66 58 56 21 33 83 55 65 28 34 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -4 -3 -2 1 7 7 5 5 4 2 2 LAND (KM) 1166 1170 1181 1168 1158 1105 1028 967 935 937 976 1001 1003 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.9 16.8 17.2 17.1 16.8 16.5 16.2 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 114.7 115.5 116.3 116.8 117.2 117.5 117.4 117.0 116.5 116.2 116.4 116.4 116.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 7 6 5 5 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 12 13 13 9 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 2. 1. -4. -8. -12. -16. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 13. 15. 12. 4. -4. -16. -27. -37. -44. -47. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/27/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/27/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##