* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/27/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 86 87 87 79 69 53 39 25 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 81 86 87 87 79 69 53 39 25 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 82 85 86 85 77 65 54 44 37 31 27 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 11 11 17 23 12 18 23 23 25 25 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 4 6 8 17 19 15 8 2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 137 166 161 195 210 252 222 212 219 213 218 215 204 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 142 142 141 137 132 130 128 129 125 124 128 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -51.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 56 56 60 62 64 63 64 57 44 32 26 25 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 22 23 22 24 23 22 18 16 12 8 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 12 16 18 22 21 21 22 29 54 65 75 82 75 200 MB DIV 29 52 82 59 51 62 26 13 14 26 24 15 11 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -3 0 4 5 3 -1 -3 0 1 -1 LAND (KM) 1157 1155 1158 1139 1122 1036 975 942 938 913 859 864 904 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.2 15.6 16.8 17.3 17.6 17.7 17.9 18.3 18.3 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 115.7 116.3 116.8 117.1 117.4 117.5 117.2 117.1 117.2 117.1 116.8 116.9 117.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 5 5 5 2 1 0 2 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 13 13 11 4 3 4 4 4 2 2 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. -3. -7. -12. -17. -19. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 12. 12. 4. -6. -22. -36. -50. -64. -73. -79. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/27/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/27/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##