* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/28/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 86 81 73 54 38 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 89 86 81 73 54 38 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 90 85 79 71 56 44 35 29 24 21 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 23 27 28 26 19 24 27 22 22 21 19 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 10 9 10 14 12 8 8 3 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 225 233 240 243 247 230 211 238 239 224 219 195 192 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.2 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 138 135 132 128 125 121 122 122 121 121 117 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 58 60 63 63 62 58 52 42 36 31 32 33 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 21 22 23 21 16 15 12 8 5 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 8 17 26 26 25 7 30 50 57 65 63 43 44 200 MB DIV 26 55 60 58 48 15 52 34 27 26 26 20 35 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 3 5 4 4 3 7 3 7 6 6 LAND (KM) 1087 1041 997 966 936 872 818 788 803 803 788 769 731 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.5 18.1 18.5 18.7 18.6 18.6 18.7 18.9 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 116.9 116.9 116.9 116.9 116.9 116.7 116.4 116.2 116.3 116.3 116.2 116.2 116.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 10 6 4 4 4 2 12 11 11 11 11 6 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -13. -19. -24. -28. -31. -34. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -16. -17. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -5. -8. -13. -18. -21. -23. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -9. -17. -36. -52. -68. -82. -93.-102.-107.-110. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/28/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/28/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##