* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/28/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 73 65 57 47 30 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 73 65 57 47 30 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 74 67 60 53 41 32 25 20 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 26 25 25 23 26 31 32 30 26 21 24 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 12 12 13 14 12 6 5 0 2 2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 232 238 234 244 243 214 214 225 231 223 199 180 179 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.2 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.9 26.0 25.9 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 132 130 127 122 120 119 117 117 118 118 116 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 59 64 63 60 59 51 41 33 30 28 30 28 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 23 23 22 19 15 13 10 7 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 31 28 30 25 20 36 51 54 66 55 52 44 200 MB DIV 50 60 42 42 21 27 31 37 23 25 21 24 33 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 3 3 0 -2 -2 1 0 -1 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 1052 1024 997 960 917 844 808 778 754 754 769 780 778 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.4 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.0 18.9 18.9 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 117.1 117.2 117.2 117.1 117.0 116.7 116.4 116.2 116.1 116.1 116.2 116.4 116.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 4 2 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 6 4 4 4 3 1 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -15. -19. -23. -25. -27. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. -20. -21. -21. -22. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -3. -8. -13. -18. -21. -24. -26. -26. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -23. -33. -50. -65. -78. -89. -97.-103.-107.-109. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/28/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/28/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##