* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/28/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 55 47 39 30 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 55 47 39 30 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 55 48 42 37 28 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 26 24 19 18 28 32 35 34 28 22 22 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 7 7 14 13 9 7 4 0 5 3 0 2 SHEAR DIR 242 238 240 241 220 212 232 238 241 230 219 201 189 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.0 25.8 25.6 25.4 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 130 128 125 120 118 116 113 112 114 115 114 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 64 64 61 61 58 51 40 34 30 28 28 27 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 22 21 21 18 16 12 8 5 3 2 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 20 13 7 7 20 43 39 24 26 31 36 40 200 MB DIV 45 43 29 16 14 38 34 10 11 1 24 31 36 700-850 TADV 1 2 5 4 4 0 1 4 1 4 4 4 8 LAND (KM) 997 958 921 879 837 758 694 635 581 581 621 640 660 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.1 19.8 19.7 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 116.9 116.8 116.7 116.6 116.4 116.0 115.5 115.1 114.8 114.8 115.0 115.2 115.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -22. -22. -23. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -11. -12. -11. -9. -8. -6. -5. -5. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -3. -6. -12. -17. -21. -23. -26. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -18. -26. -35. -47. -61. -74. -84. -92. -97. -99. -99. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/28/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/28/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##