* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/29/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 45 38 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 45 38 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 46 39 33 29 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 23 18 19 24 33 38 37 32 24 23 20 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 13 12 9 9 6 4 2 1 0 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 240 241 232 216 210 227 236 237 223 219 189 198 197 SST (C) 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.6 25.4 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.1 24.7 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 130 127 124 121 117 114 111 110 111 109 106 102 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 62 58 57 56 55 48 39 34 30 28 28 29 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 20 18 16 14 9 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 12 3 6 0 25 32 29 31 31 39 45 58 200 MB DIV 39 35 29 20 28 36 26 24 9 25 25 32 15 700-850 TADV 2 6 6 7 2 -1 0 1 0 3 1 6 9 LAND (KM) 982 936 891 835 778 674 581 552 567 557 556 528 461 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.4 18.8 19.5 20.1 20.3 20.2 20.3 20.4 20.8 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 117.0 116.9 116.7 116.5 116.2 115.5 114.8 114.6 114.7 114.7 114.9 115.1 114.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 0 0 1 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -17. -21. -24. -24. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -11. -12. -11. -11. -9. -7. -6. -6. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -14. -19. -23. -23. -24. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -17. -26. -34. -48. -64. -78. -87. -91. -95. -97. -96. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/29/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/29/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##