* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/29/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 42 33 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 42 33 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 44 38 34 29 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 22 19 24 31 39 41 37 31 27 27 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 11 8 4 8 6 5 6 1 5 4 5 SHEAR DIR 259 247 222 210 210 230 239 234 227 215 205 199 214 SST (C) 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.7 25.5 25.3 25.3 25.1 25.1 24.8 24.3 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 130 128 125 121 118 115 112 111 109 109 107 102 97 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 61 58 57 57 54 48 46 43 38 37 31 34 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 15 13 12 12 9 6 4 3 2 2 2 3 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -13 -15 -5 0 13 28 36 51 40 47 44 35 200 MB DIV 20 27 40 46 45 33 30 22 23 24 4 35 9 700-850 TADV 7 6 5 1 1 3 7 5 6 3 9 6 2 LAND (KM) 952 897 838 779 720 635 552 538 532 522 518 482 408 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.3 19.8 20.3 20.4 20.5 20.6 20.8 21.3 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 117.0 116.8 116.6 116.3 116.0 115.3 114.6 114.5 114.6 114.6 114.9 115.1 114.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 5 4 4 2 0 0 1 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -19. -23. -26. -28. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -18. -18. -19. -19. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -17. -25. -32. -47. -60. -72. -78. -82. -86. -88. -89. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/29/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/29/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##