* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/29/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 35 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 40 35 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 41 37 33 29 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 15 19 29 36 41 36 37 29 33 24 30 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 15 14 9 8 7 9 5 4 6 8 9 11 SHEAR DIR 255 231 203 208 221 244 239 225 211 203 193 192 221 SST (C) 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.8 25.5 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.4 25.2 25.1 24.6 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 127 124 121 119 115 112 110 110 112 110 110 106 100 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 56 55 54 52 49 42 41 38 36 35 38 38 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 13 12 11 8 5 3 2 2 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -13 -3 7 9 25 22 36 44 51 36 43 34 200 MB DIV 24 46 56 38 15 42 12 20 31 34 33 13 17 700-850 TADV 5 4 0 0 -1 3 1 1 2 3 5 3 0 LAND (KM) 912 861 810 752 695 630 630 630 625 601 576 525 419 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.3 18.7 19.1 19.5 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.9 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 116.9 116.8 116.6 116.3 115.9 115.4 115.4 115.4 115.3 115.2 115.1 115.2 114.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 2 0 0 1 1 2 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -7. -11. -17. -22. -26. -27. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -14. -18. -18. -18. -19. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -17. -24. -39. -52. -63. -70. -75. -80. -84. -86. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/29/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/29/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##