* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/29/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 31 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 36 31 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 36 32 29 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 27 36 40 39 36 31 27 27 22 26 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 15 10 8 9 10 9 9 7 9 7 10 6 SHEAR DIR 237 211 206 217 228 243 238 219 203 201 196 205 215 SST (C) 26.3 26.0 25.7 25.6 25.4 25.4 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.2 25.1 24.6 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 124 121 118 117 114 112 111 111 111 110 110 105 100 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 55 54 52 49 48 45 45 40 37 36 35 31 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 7 4 4 3 3 2 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -14 0 3 19 31 35 45 34 43 40 52 47 200 MB DIV 32 37 43 26 46 25 21 31 21 30 23 31 17 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 0 4 8 4 9 3 4 3 -2 -9 LAND (KM) 853 794 735 687 640 625 610 610 630 626 628 601 520 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.8 19.2 19.5 19.8 19.9 20.0 20.0 19.9 20.0 20.1 20.6 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 116.7 116.4 116.1 115.8 115.4 115.3 115.2 115.2 115.4 115.5 115.7 116.0 115.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 3 1 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 731 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -16. -21. -24. -25. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -13. -14. -15. -14. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -15. -21. -35. -48. -57. -63. -68. -73. -76. -79. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/29/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/29/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##