* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/30/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 33 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 37 33 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 33 30 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 29 39 42 43 41 44 36 36 32 36 35 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 9 6 8 9 9 7 8 9 9 9 10 N/A SHEAR DIR 211 210 217 231 242 242 232 221 205 205 212 229 N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.7 25.5 25.3 25.2 25.0 24.8 24.5 24.3 23.8 23.3 23.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 118 116 113 111 108 106 103 102 97 92 92 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.0 -53.0 -52.2 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 51 50 46 47 46 42 38 36 37 40 39 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 10 9 7 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 4 2 15 20 28 33 22 37 26 39 42 N/A 200 MB DIV 41 52 32 41 31 28 21 27 22 31 37 25 N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 0 5 6 2 2 4 3 4 0 -3 N/A LAND (KM) 774 717 660 623 586 552 538 510 489 444 375 299 N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.5 20.7 21.0 21.3 21.9 22.6 23.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.3 116.0 115.6 115.4 115.1 115.0 115.1 115.1 115.2 115.3 115.1 114.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 2 4 3 3 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -15. -22. -29. -33. -36. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -13. -19. -35. -50. -64. -75. -83. -90. -97.-100. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/30/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/30/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##