* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/30/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 26 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 26 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 40 42 45 49 44 39 36 37 30 35 30 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 7 8 9 8 8 8 5 11 14 12 11 N/A SHEAR DIR 209 218 232 246 247 238 227 209 211 217 221 231 N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.4 25.2 25.1 24.9 24.7 24.6 24.4 24.1 23.6 23.2 23.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 115 112 111 108 105 104 103 100 95 91 94 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.1 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 2 2 2 N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 47 47 46 45 44 40 36 34 36 37 36 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -1 21 20 19 27 29 26 34 36 36 22 N/A 200 MB DIV 44 27 29 24 15 18 18 31 49 47 23 12 N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 5 4 8 4 10 3 13 3 7 -3 N/A LAND (KM) 699 653 606 574 542 508 499 456 434 398 315 239 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.6 20.9 21.0 21.4 21.7 22.2 23.0 23.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.8 115.6 115.3 115.2 115.0 114.9 114.9 114.8 114.9 115.0 114.7 114.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -7. -14. -22. -30. -35. -38. -40. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -12. -12. -11. -12. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -14. -21. -35. -51. -65. -75. -83. -90. -94. -97. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/30/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/30/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##