* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/30/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 38 40 39 40 40 31 34 29 28 29 23 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 9 10 9 7 5 3 7 13 14 9 N/A SHEAR DIR 212 228 237 238 236 231 213 200 214 214 238 231 N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.7 25.6 25.4 25.3 25.2 25.1 24.5 24.5 25.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 118 118 116 115 112 111 111 110 105 105 110 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -52.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 2 4 N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 50 49 46 48 48 42 39 40 40 37 28 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 7 6 5 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 13 23 24 24 44 43 42 23 37 30 18 N/A 200 MB DIV 42 42 30 27 27 20 42 44 54 26 22 -1 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 3 7 2 5 3 2 8 -2 -9 -31 N/A LAND (KM) 584 547 509 494 480 462 455 418 387 322 224 168 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.4 20.7 20.8 21.2 21.5 22.2 23.0 23.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.4 114.2 113.9 113.9 113.8 113.8 113.8 113.7 113.6 113.7 113.3 112.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 4 4 4 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -18. -24. -29. -31. -32. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -14. -20. -34. -49. -60. -68. -74. -80. -83. -86. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/30/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/30/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##