* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182013 11/01/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 35 38 38 35 30 23 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 35 38 38 35 30 23 22 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 33 33 32 31 29 26 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 11 10 15 8 13 31 48 60 62 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -3 -4 -4 4 7 5 4 -3 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 65 87 104 112 106 118 179 219 238 222 226 227 230 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.7 28.2 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.1 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 147 145 143 140 140 146 152 150 149 143 138 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -53.3 -53.5 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 6 4 5 2 700-500 MB RH 64 62 59 56 56 55 53 50 49 50 42 42 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 6 4 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 25 33 31 14 26 14 9 14 34 60 40 52 200 MB DIV 59 54 29 39 24 37 23 41 38 42 11 0 -8 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 1 0 0 1 -2 1 -3 16 3 -6 LAND (KM) 444 441 439 466 492 512 391 223 113 30 -81 -215 -312 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.3 19.4 20.9 22.7 23.9 24.7 25.6 26.2 LONG(DEG W) 108.1 108.4 108.6 109.1 109.5 110.3 110.4 109.8 108.5 107.5 106.8 105.9 105.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 5 5 7 9 9 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 16 14 12 9 8 11 8 6 30 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -6. -15. -23. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 8. 5. 0. -7. -14. -18. -21. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182013 EIGHTEEN 11/01/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182013 EIGHTEEN 11/01/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##